The NFL has always unofficially stood for “Not For Long.” Flash back one year from now, and the Minnesota Vikings were embarking on Year 2 of the Kevin O’Connell era, fresh off a 13-win inaugural campaign and NFC North divisional crown. While the oddsmakers last summer weren’t necessarily enthusiastic about Minnesota’s chances in 2023, there was still plenty to be excited about with the arrival of Brian Flores as defensive coordinator and continuity for O’Connell’s offense.
Today? The Vikings are easily the least interesting team in the NFC North. The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers should feel encouraged about their chances of taking another step, even after they made the NFC Championship Game and divisional round, respectively, last season. And whether Vikings fans want to hear it or not, the Chicago Bears are shaping up to be the NFL’s newest national darling.
The arrival of No. 1-overall pick and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams changes the picture for the eternally boring Bears. Throw in No. 9-overall pick Rome Odunze and 2023 Pro Bowlers Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift, and suddenly the Bears have an offense that is teetering on box-office material — not to mention that HBO’s Hard Knocks will throw additional gasoline on Chicago’s hype-fire once the calendar turns to August.
With such a dramatic makeover, it’s fair to wonder what this Windy City offense will look like under newly hired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s watch. So, let’s attempt to provide a sneak peek at how this unit will operate in 2024.
Before spending the past three seasons on Pete Carroll’s staff as the OC for the Seattle Seahawks, Waldron spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Washington and with the Los Angeles Rams. Waldron’s offenses in Seattle paled in comparison — at least from a personnel standpoint — to McVay’s offenses with the Rams. For example, in 2021, Waldron’s Seahawks had the second-highest multiple tight end usage on first downs in the NFL. That same year, the Rams ranked 29th in multiple tight end usage on first downs.
In 2021, the Rams had the highest rate of 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) on first downs across the league at 84%. They also led the league in first-down empty shotgun usage at 13%. It was a critical year for this McVay scheme, not only because it was the same season that the Rams captured the Lombardi Trophy, but mainly because it was the first time this scheme had a cheat code at quarterback with Matthew Stafford that needed to be maximized.
That’s exactly what Waldron will look to do with Caleb Williams.
Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles will likely lean on his experience in this particular arena as well. Before taking the big chair at Halas Hall, Poles was in the Kansas City Chiefs front office under Brett Veach, John Dorsey, and Andy Reid. That’s noteworthy because, to help acclimate Mahomes to Sundays as a first-year starter in 2018, Reid and the Chiefs gave Mahomes plenty of bites from the Air Raid offense that he ran in college at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsbury. Let’s not forget that Williams spent the past three seasons playing in essentially the same offense at Oklahoma and USC under Lincoln Riley.
Like Williams at Oklahoma and USC, Mahomes was accustomed to slinging the pill in a sideline-to-sideline offense at Texas Tech. And the Chiefs didn’t try to fit a round peg in a square hole by turning him into a conventional, under-center signal caller who manages the game. The ease with which Mahomes took to running his handful of Air Raid staples on Sundays in 2018 probably isn’t lost on Poles now that he has Williams at quarterback. It’s fair to presume that Waldron will implement a similar component of Air Raid to his scheme with Williams this season.
Considering Chicago possesses the best wide receiver trio in the league with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, this Bears offense is going to more closely resemble the 2021 Rams and their 84% 11-personnel usage on first downs than that of any of the previous three offenses Waldron oversaw in Seattle. And it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears are at or near the top of the league in empty usage, either.
Make no mistake about it, Waldron and the Bears will put a lot on Williams’ plate as a rookie this season. That should make for a relatively smooth transition for Williams because that’s seemingly all he knew while playing in Lincoln Riley’s offense the past three seasons. With the skill-position players at his disposal, the expectation should be for Williams to be an immediate impact player while leading a potentially dangerous Bears offense immediately.
Rob Searles
Searles is a born and raised Minnesotan who currently resides in Denver. He was the Pass Game Coordinator for Simley and Mounds View HS and previously wrote for the Daily Thunder, FantasyPros, and Bleacher Report.
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